What’s Shaping the Consumer Economy Now?

Understanding Shoppers’ Complex Balance of Value-Seeking and Self-Care Amidst Economic Shifts

Jacksonville, Fla. – The new State of the Shopper survey from Acosta Group offers a nuanced view of today’s consumers, revealing how they’re navigating economic uncertainty and tariff concerns with resilience and adaptability. Key trends are highlighted for brands and retailers based on insights from the study, conducted with Acosta Group’s proprietary U.S. Shopper Community.

“The latest findings underscore shoppers’ seemingly conflicted opinions regarding concerns about the economy, tariffs, and their own financial stability,” said Kathy Risch, SVP, Shopper Insights and Thought Leadership, Acosta Group. “After the pandemic and five years of inflationary concerns, shoppers have clearly adopted new behaviors. They’ve become accustomed to cutting back on spending, shopping across channels for deals, and splurging, thoughtfully, on those indulgences that are most meaningful.”

The Economy: It’s Complicated

According to the new study, most consumers describe the state of the economy in negative terms, with overall consumer sentiment declining by 30% through April 2025. There are, however, recent indications that sentiment may be improving.

Data from Acosta Group also reflects that shoppers are becoming less concerned about inflation and are easing up on their discretionary spending cuts. Still, 60% of shoppers say they are more worried about rising prices than they were six months ago, especially when it comes to food and grocery costs, which remain the most persistent pain points.

Tariffs are a source of concern. Most shoppers define tariffs as taxes on imports, but many are confused about what they mean and their broader impact. Concerns are highest for tariffs on food and beverages (60%), apparel (42%), and major goods like cars (52%), and electronics (51%). Gen Z is the most optimistic, with 45% expecting positive outcomes from tariffs over the next three to five years. However, 62% of consumers worry that tariffs may lead to a recession in 2025, with that concern rising to 70% for Millennials.

Shoppers Adjust With a Focus on Value

Despite overall economic uncertainty, relatively few consumers express a poor outlook for their personal finances or job security, though one-third anticipate increased stress levels in the coming year. Households with children are particularly sensitive to inflation concerns. Among consumers with a more pessimistic view of their personal financial situation, a majority have already reduced discretionary spending on items like dining out (80%), travel (69%), and major purchases (65%).

Most shoppers say they have not seen any price reductions in the past six months. Nearly 30% report shopping more frequently at discount grocery or dollar stores, and more than 25% say they are visiting specialty grocers less often due to personal financial constraints. Still, traditional grocers remain the top channel of choice at 78%, followed by mass retailers at 64%, and discount retailers at 39%.

Although growth in private label unit share has slowed since mid-2023, nearly half of shoppers (48%) now say they choose store brands because they want to—not because they have to. In contrast, only 16% cite financial necessity as the main reason for choosing store brands.              

Splurging Amid Cutbacks

In its 2025 consumer predictions, Acosta Group stated that consumers will crave affordable indulgences away from home. According to this new study, consumers continue to prioritize indulgences, despite cutbacks in discretionary spending. Dining out, while impacted, is still the top splurge for 66% of shoppers, confirming that even in challenging times, consumers seek enjoyable events for themselves and their families.

“Brands and retailers must respond by creating opportunities for small, satisfying splurges,” Risch added. “By delivering special experiences through quality, uniqueness, and indulgence, brands and retailers can tap into consumers’ desire for ‘little luxuries.’”

Opportunities for Brands

Consumers are adapting to the economic environment in a variety of ways. Forty percent are buying more store brands, Boomers are reducing waste and seeking deals, and 43% of Gen Z are simply buying less.

“In the midst of economic uncertainty and shifting consumer perceptions, brands need to lead with innovation, tell a compelling story, and deliver consistent value,” said Chad Barnett, SVP, National Client Insights, Acosta. “For retailers, customized offerings that highlight value and effective use of digital tools and platforms is key. By investing in purpose-driven messaging, smart shelf strategies, and a bold digital presence, brands and retailers can differentiate themselves, reassure consumers, and win in physical and digital marketplaces.”

Acosta Group’s “2025 State of the Shopper Survey” was conducted April 25 – 29, 2025, with 792 adult members of the company’s Shopper Community. Acosta Group’s Shopper Community is comprised of over 40,000 demographically diverse shoppers across the U.S. and is the company’s proprietary community for survey engagement. 

Discover how real shopper behavior can inspire smarter strategies—explore more of our Shopper Insights.